ISIL, insurgent strategies for statehood, and the challenge for security studies

Abstract

What do we know about the US-led coalition's chance of defeating the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)? Exploring a number of past wars between state and non-state forces, I argue that while the war with ISIL may become protracted and last long, ISIL's chance of winning is after all slim. Primary reasons for this optimism lie in the combination of ISIL's self-destructive actions, which are likely to alienate much of its popular and financial base, and the transformation of US-led military operations in Iraq and Syria.