The nature and extent of the Taliban’s involvement in the drug trade before and after the regime change (1994–2022): insights from experts

Abstract

ABSTRACT This article considers what experts know about the nature and extent of the Taliban’s involvement in the drug trade from 1994 until 2022. The findings indicate that the Taliban has been consistently involved in the drug trade in various roles and capacities. This involvement, fortified by familial and tribal connections with key drug trade actors, allows the Taliban to establish local legitimacy and strengthen its influence in rural areas. Despite the Taliban’s transition from insurgency to governance in August 2021, factions within the group have remained involved in the drug trade, and some drug traffickers hold official positions in the Taliban-led government. Study findings reveal that the Taliban’s opium ban serves strategic objectives, which include gaining political recognition and increasing opium prices. These findings underscore the importance of independent and comprehensive monitoring of the Taliban’s counternarcotics policies and urge caution in any engagements regarding counternarcotics initiatives with the Taliban-led government.