Is South Korea's 2050 Carbon-Neutral scenario sufficient for meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction goal?

Abstract

In line with Global Climate Change Alliance initiated in 2007 by the European Commission, the South Korean government announced the “2050 Carbon-Neutral Strategy” in October 2020. The 2050 Carbon-Neutral Scenario was announced in October 2021, with the aim of reducing the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40 % by 2030 compared to those in 2018. The primary objective of this study is to conduct a scenario-based comparative analysis focusing on the forecast of greenhouse gas emissions and the potential for reduction within the building sector. The methodology employed in this study utilizes the greenhouse gas emission calculation methods outlined in the IPCC Guidelines of 1996 and 2006. Based on the national building energy and statistics database for the years 2015 to 2019, the study analyzes building types, building energy intensity, and floor areas to calculate emissions and energy consumption within the sector. The results indicate that the emissions will increase continuously from 2020 (156.9 million tons of CO2 equivalent) to 2050 (217.8 million tons of CO2 equivalent). We have considered the four scenarios outlined in the ‘2050 Carbon Neutrality Scenario’ as the most effective strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the building sector. These include: (1) Mandatory implementation of Zero-Energy Buildings (ZEB) for new buildings by 2050, (2) 100 % execution of green remodeling for existing buildings, (3) Promotion of high-efficiency devices to achieve a 25–30 % improvement in energy consumption efficiency compared to 2018 and an enhancement of device energy use per unit, and (4) Expansion of clean heat utilization such as fuel cells and waste heat utilization in district heating. Thus, the possibility of South Korea achieving the 2050 carbon-neutrality target in the building sector is low. Therefore, it is important to develop effective emissions reduction policies and plans for the building sector.