Abstract
A new government report on climate change shows that global emissions of greenhouse gases have increased to very high levels despite various policies to reduce climate change. Building energy accounts for 40% of the world’s energy consumption and accounts for 33% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. This study applied the LEAP (Long-range energy alternatives planning) model and Bass diffusion method for predicting the total energy consumption and GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions from the residential and commercial building sector of Sejong City in South Korea. Then, using the Bass diffusion model, three scenarios were analyzed (REST: Renewable energy supply target, BES: Building energy saving, BEP: Building energy policy) for GHG reduction. The GHG emissions for Sejong City for 2015–2030 were analyzed, and the past and future GHG emissions of the city were predicted in a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. In the REST scenario, the GHG emissions would attain a 24.5% reduction and, in the BES scenario, the GHG emissions would attain 12.81% reduction by 2030. Finally, the BEP scenario shows the potential for a 19.81% GHG reduction. These results could be used to guide the planning and development of the new city.
Highlights
In Kyoto on 11 December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted at the Third United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) Conference of the Parties (COP3)
With the analysis model of greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction, the amount of emissions in the energy sector is determined by economic activity that consumes energy
The modeling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions involves some quantitative assumptions about population growth, number of floor area, households, involves some quantitative assumptions about population growth, number of floor area, households, and Gross domestic product (GDP)
Summary
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) Conference of the Parties (COP3) This accord defines the obligation of developed countries to reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions [1]. Kyoto Protocol system, South Korea is not categorized among the Annex 1 countries obliged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Before a newly derived climate system (Post-2020) scheduled to start in December 2015, a GHG reduction goal was set at 37% (compared with the business-as-usual or BAU scenario) by 2030. This was done in anticipation that South Korea could expand its influence in the international community [2]. A GHG emissions reduction goal was set of
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