Is Peaceful Unification Possible?

Abstract

S 219 Is Peaceful Unification Possible? William Taylor, Jr. and Abraham Kim Peaceful unification under the current DPRK leadership or any leadership under the juche system is a pipedream. For decades, the juche ideology has been institutionalized and entrenched into the North Korean society. Kim Jong-il’s legitimacy as Kim I1 Sung’s successor is based upon his ability to perpetuate this ideology and its socio-political system. To ensure that he is committed to his mandate, the leaders of the Korea Worker’s Party, who also depend on juche for their livelihood and authority, hold Kim Jong-il accountable. However, saving the country from its current economic crisis would necessitate dismantling the intrusive bureaucratic party system and heavy-handed control of the economy required under the juche system. Without addressing North Korea’s economic problems, the plight of the country, not to mention the regime, looks dim. Thus, Kim Jong-il is faced with a Catch-22 situation in which the two pillars of his legitimacy are mutually destabilizing. Ultimately, this dilemma will lead to the erosion of his authority. In the meantime, Pyongyang is pursuing a three-pronged strategy to address its economic crisis while maintaining its juche system: mobilizing its people to endure economic hardship; promoting the Rajin-Sonbong special economic Zone, and soliciting international humanitarian aid to feed its starving population. But, all these efforts have failed to bring any substantive change or improvement to North Korea’s economic situation. And, it is unlikely that North Korea’s predicament can ever improve under the juche system. The United States, South Korea and Japan all prefer a soft landing for the DPRK and peaceful unification. South Korea especially understands that the financial costs of a DPRK hard landing would be staggering. But a soft landing requires North-South dialogue based, for 220 THE KOREAN JOURNAL OF DEFENSE ANALYSIS example, on the fundamental principles of the 1992 Agreement on Nonaggression, Reconciliation, Cooperation and Exchanges. A straight line projection of conditions in the North, where almost everything that can go wrong is going wrong, leads to the conclusion that the juche system will implode by coup d’etat, revolution or anarchy. As present conditions proceed tensions will mount on both sides of the DMZ, and at times of high tension, wars can start by accident or miscalculation. There is also the possibility that North Korea could make a limited attack south to envelop Seoul, stop, and sue for peace. This would be more likely if the DPRK leadership were to consider South Korea’s political system and economy to be in serious trouble and the resolve of the Clinton administration weak. Whatever the scenario, Washington, Seoul and Tokyo must prepare for the eventuality of war by taking immediate steps to better defend Seoul and much of Japan against North Korean surface-to-surface missiles, and to improve the air defense and counter-artillery capabilities around Seoul. Defending or significantly limiting damage to Seoul not only prepares for an unwanted war, but also removes Pyongyang’s diplomatic “ace in the hole,” that is, its capability to destroy Seoul. WILLIAM TAYLOR, JR. and ABRAHAM KIM 51 Is Peaceful Unification Possible? William Taylor, Jr. and Abraham Kim Here is yet another paper about Korean unification. There are thousands of them. The bottom line of this paper is that peaceful unification involving the present North Korean leadership or any leadership under thejuche system is a very low-probability event. The logic chain is: (1 ) peaceful unification requires a “soft landing,” (2) a soft landing requires rd economic reform, (3) real economic reform would quickly undermine the juche system, (4) the juche system is the fundamental basis (the sine qua non) of power for the present or foreseeable DPRK leadership, ( 5 ) the present North Korean system will either implode (a hard landing) or the DPRK leadership will order an attack south-or both simultaneously.