Is direct local marketing the best strategy in emerging half-shell oyster markets?

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I used Monte Carlo simulation to compare average prices received from alternative marketing strategies available to oyster farmers. Each strategy consisted of a share of output intended to be sold directly into local markets and a share to be sold to a distributor. Results indicate that the chosen strategy can have statistically significant and economically meaningful differences in the average price received, which translates directly into differences in revenue. Results indicate that farms planning to sell into small local markets will likely need to diversify their marketing strategy to include selling into alternative lower-value markets due to the inability of local markets to absorb all local production. This need to diversify increases as farm size increases. Larger local markets can absorb more product, but even they reach a saturation point and larger farms competing in these markets will need alternative outlets. These results hold across a range of competing farm numbers, demand levels of local buyers, and prices. The overall seemingly counter-intuitive result is that a strategy of selling into the highest-value market can actually yield lower revenue due to local market saturation. Instead, a strategy that diversifies into other lower-value markets that can absorb more product is likely to yield higher revenue.