Iran’s Demographic Transition and Its Potential for Development

Abstract

: Over the past half-century, Iran has experienced unprecedented demographic transition. With a population over 85 million, Iran’s population growth recently has declined below one per cent per year, compared with nearly four per cent in the 1980s. This phenomenal decline is the result of social developments along with the re-introduction of a family planning program, which progressively brought the total fertility rate (TFR) down to below-replacement level since 2000. That is, from around seven children per woman in the mid-1980s–and despite the reversal of population policies toward pronatalist since 2010–the total fertility rate had decreased to 1.7 children per woman in 2021, partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent economic shocks. Life expectancy at birth has tripled in the last century (1920-2020) from 25 to 75 years. There have been important changes in the age structure of Iran’s population, with the under-15 population decreasing from 40 per cent in 1996 to 20 per cent in 2021. In contrast, the working-age population (ages 15 to 64) has increased substantially to over 70%, indicating that Iran has entered a ‘demographic window of opportunity’. Accompanied by rising levels of educational attainment among both men and women, this demographic window has the potential to create socio-economic opportunities for Iran over the next three decades, provided that adequate economic conditions, public policies and youth employment are prepared.