SERBIA AND RUSSIA ON THE DEMOGRAPHIC MAP OF EUROPE TWO DECADES AFTER THE FALL OF COMMUNISM

Abstract

1. Introduction The analysed and presented cartographic data on total fertility rates, birth rates, life expectancy, the percentage share of over 65 year olds, the infant mortality rates and adolescent-specific fertility rates from 2011 are the image of an aging European population with higher values of life expectancy, the number of which decreases, based on the natural movement. The epithet Old Continent can now rightfully refer to Europe even from the standpoint of the population, i.e. its average age. Unfavourable economic situation, linked to the transition from the state to a market economy, respectively the privatization of state enterprises, after the fall of communism, had a significant influence on the unfavourable demographic situation. The data for Serbia were obtained from the Statistical Office, for Russia from the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics, and for other European countries from the following sites: www.ined.fr,http://data.worldbank.org, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu, http://knoema.com/atlas. The aim of this paper is to point out the differences of demographic trends in former communist countries Serbia and Russia compared with other European countries with different political systems, in 2011. The demographic trends in other former communist countries (all former Yugoslav and Soviet republics) were similar. The fall of communism has affected all spheres of life of the inhabitants of the former communist states, but without doubt that influence, even after two decades, is reflected in the shaping of contemporary demographic trends. The total fertility rate in only three European countries has a value that is higher than 2.1[per thousand], that is, the expanded reproduction of the population is provided only in Turkey, Ireland and Iceland, while the lowest value of 1.21[per thousand] was recorded in Hungary. The same complicated situation we can see in Russia, where this rate is 1.5%. Natural population growth is negative in 16 European countries. Life expectancy has increased in all countries, with significant difference between Western and Eastern Europe. The increasing share of population older than 65 years is present in most countries of Europe. The fertility of the youngest fertile contingent of 15 to 19 years has declined due to change in the age birth model and increase in the average age of women at first birth. Infant mortality rates also decline in most countries, thanks to the improvement and advancement of health protection. While on the one hand, in most countries, an increase is recorded in life expectancy and the share of the elderly, on the other hand, the decrease is recorded in total fertility rates, the decline in natural population growth and fertility of female adolescents and infant mortality rates. These processes have influenced the change in the demographic image of Europe, with significant differences at the country level, according to the economic, ecological, cultural, religious and other influences. Demographic trends in Serbia, as one of the former Yugoslav republics, do not lag behind Europe. Serbia has recently recorded a constant population decline, and comparing the data from the 2011 census with previous census in 2002, a town of 311 139 inhabitants disappeared. The total fertility rate is 1.41, which is insufficient for the expanded reproduction of the population. With the reduction in fertility, an increase in the share of the population older than 65 years is recorded, as well as an increase in life expectancy. In this sense, there is a change in the balance of the old and the number of the active population and the increasing burden on the social fund. The fertility rate of adolescent girls in Serbia has a downward trend, as well as the infant mortality rates. The modern situation in Russia, as one of the former Soviet republics, is connected with two main current trends: stable increase of the level of birth rate and migration of foreign population. …