1. Demographic Transition in India

Abstract

India a country noted for the persistence of high fertility despite very early development of population programs has been undergoing a marked fertility reduction since the 1970s. The total fertility rate of 3.4 in the early 1990s was not far above the world average. The fertility decline is generalized but its extent varies greatly in different regions. The 1990-92 total fertility rates in Goa and Kerala were 2 or under vs. 4.8 in Uttar Pradesh. Indias total fertility rate apparently fluctuated at around 6 from the late 19th century until nearly 1970. The total fertility rate was estimated at about 5 in 1971 about 4 at 15 years later and at 3.4 for 1990-92 according to the National Family Health Survey. Even states with the highest current fertility such as Uttar Pradesh have had significant declines in the past 2 decades. Changes in age specific fertility rates have been strongest in the higher age cohorts while fertility among younger women remains high. A strict formulation of the theory of demographic transition views fertility decline as a response to mortality decline. All mortality indicators have been declining in India during this century. Life expectancy at birth increased from 23 years in 1911 to 57 in 1991. The infant mortality rate was 96/1000 in 1991 for India as a whole and ranged from 15/1000 in Mizoram to 112 in Orissa. Although mortality began to decline before fertility did the interaction does not appear to have been strong at the level of the individual states which have the most complete data. Residential educational and religious fertility differentials like geographic differentials are marked. The 1990-91 total fertility rate was 2.70 in urban areas 3.67 in rural areas 4.03 for illiterate women 2.15 for those with secondary or higher education 3.30 for Hindus 4.41 for Muslims 2.87 for Christians and 2.43 for Sikhs. Educational attainment explains fertility differentials between states better than does mortality. 72% of the variance in the average number of children in different states in the late 1980s is explained by the literacy rate vs. 60% explained by the infant mortality rate. Some 41% of Indian women 13-49 years old use a contraceptive method. Usage is concentrated among older women among whom female sterilization is the most used method.