Investment Decision Making for Carbon Capture and Storage Technology in High Efficiency, Low-Emission Coal-fired Power Plant via Dynamic Techno-Economic-Policy Evaluation Framework: Case Study in China

Abstract

There are significant uncertainties pertaining to the future of coal power generation across the globe and especially for China. Being one of the largest coal consumers and CO2 emitters, China aims at addressing its national energy security while ensuring to achieve sustainable operations. In following its commitments to the Paris Agreement and in pursuit of near-zero emissions from power plants, China has actively moved towards high efficiency, low emission (HELE) coal-fired power plants. However, HELE technology alone cannot completely cut carbon emissions, and will require a mature CO2 emissions reduction technology such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) to significantly reduce the CO2 emissions within short to medium term. This paper conducts a preliminary evaluation for investment in HELE coal-fired power plant with CCS (HELE-CCS) in China, under the context of the Shenzhen emissions trading scheme. We carry out this preliminary analysis through mixed-integer non-linear programming (MINLP) framework, and by using publicly available power generation and carbon pricing data. Based on hypothetical scenarios, a HELE coal-fired power plant is found to contribute 55 % profit by selling the electricity. However, a substantial CO2 emissions cost is incurred due to the installation of CCS, leading to a high caution on investment. A more detailed analysis is warranted using real power plant data to confirm real business feasibility of HELE-CCS, including an expansive set of scenarios that also assess relevant appropriate government incentives and subsidies as well as variant financial models.