Abstract
Streamflow is a very important component of the hydrological cycle, and variation in the streamflow can be an indication of hydrological disaster. Thus, the accurate quantification of streamflow variation is a core concern in water resources engineering. In this study, we evaluated the factors influencing streamflow and decomposed their effects in three large rivers: the Buk Han River (BHR), the Nam Han River (NHR), and the Lower Han River (LHB). The Pettit test was used to investigate breakpoints in conjunction with the climate elasticity approach and decomposition framework to quantify and decompose the effects of climate variability and anthropogenic activity. The abrupt breakpoints in the streamflow and precipitation data were detected in 1997 and 1995. Considering these breakpoints, we divided the time series into two periods: the baseline period and the post-baseline period. Climate elasticity approaches were used to quantify the effects of climate variability and anthropogenic activity during the baseline period, post-baseline period, and future periods (2031–2060 and 2071–2100) under the Representative Concentration Pathways’ 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The results revealed that climate variability was the leading cause of alteration in the streamflow in the BHR and NHR, accounting for 76.52% to 80.51% of the total change, respectively. Meanwhile, the LHR remained more sensitive to anthropogenic activity, which accounted for 56.42% of the total variation in streamflow. Future climate change also showed an increase in precipitation and temperature in both scenarios, especially during the far-future period (2071–2100). This variation in the climatic factor was shown to affect the future streamflow by 22.14% to 27.32%. These findings can play a very important role in future planning for large river basins, considering the impacts of increasing anthropogenic activity and climate change to reduce the risks of hydrological hazards.
Highlights
Global warming has become a core concern of researchers in the area of hydrology and water resources [1]. It has been proven from experimental evidence from various regions of the globe that the hydrological cycle has been influenced by warming, including anthropogenic warming due to the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere [2]
To quantify and decompose the hydrological response to climate warming and anthropogenic activities in the river basin, we initially diagnosed the spurious breakpoint in the time series
The breakpoints in precipitation and streamflow in all three of the rivers were observed during the 1990s
Summary
Global warming has become a core concern of researchers in the area of hydrology and water resources [1] It has been proven from experimental evidence from various regions of the globe that the hydrological cycle has been influenced by warming, including anthropogenic warming due to the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere [2]. This addition of greenhouse gases eventually results in a rise in evaporation and extensive precipitation events [1,3,4,5]. These activities include a shift in land use/land cover (LULC), construction dams, embankments, urbanization, changes in agriculture patterns, deforestation, and operational management practices, which are believed to have a direct or indirect impacts on the hydrological cycle of a watershed [11,12,13,14]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
