Abstract
Importance of long-term weather forecasts in the west african Sahel.-The countries of the Sahel are faced with a crisis. These countries will need the technical help and the moral support of the international community to cope efficiently with such internal crises. There are several limitations to the gathering, the analysis and the validity of the data about the situation in Sahel. Because of the vagueness of this data, Carr ' s antithesis ("what is" versus "what should be") is a very useful concept to determine what a long term forecast implies. According to the national structures within which a potential technology will be used, a long term forecast, however perfect, will be limited. While a serious long-term weather forecast is not possible yet, it might even be unwelcome for many parts of the world as long as present social, political and economic situations have not been changed and better adapted.
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