Intra‐ and interspecific density dependence mediates weather effects on the population dynamics of a plant–insect herbivore system

Abstract

Temperature and precipitation are two major factors determining arthropod population densities, but the effects from these climate variables are seldom evaluated in the same study system and in combination with inter‐ and intraspecific density dependence. In this study, I used a 19 year time series on plant variables (shoot height and flowering incidence) and insect density in order to understand direct and indirect effects of climatic fluctuations on insect population densities. The study system includes two closely related leaf beetle species (Galerucella spp.) and a flower feeding weevil Nanophyes marmoratus attacking the plant purple loosestrife Lythrum salicaria. Results suggest that both intraspecific density dependence and weather variables affected Galerucella population densities, with interactive effects of rain and temperature on insect densities that depended on the timing relative to insect life cycles. In spring, high temperatures increased Galerucella densities only when combined with high rain, as low rain implies a high drought risk. Low temperatures are only beneficial if combined with little rain, as high rain cause chilly and wet conditions that are bad for insects. In summer, interactive effects of rain and temperature are different because high temperatures and little rain cause drought that induce wilting in plants, thus reducing food availability for the leaf feeding larvae. In contrast, the density of the flower feeding weevil was less affected by temperature and precipitation directly, and more indirectly interspecific density dependent effects through reduced resource availability caused by previous Galerucella damage.