Interpolation of monthly mean temperatures using cokriging in spherical coordinates

Abstract

AbstractPaleoclimate reconstructions are generally validated on recent periods. To obtain a set of instrumental records at the regional scale, a time series of monthly mean temperatures in Northeastern Canada were interpolated for the 1961–2000 period. Records were provided by 202 meteorological stations. Temperatures derived from a Canadian regional climate model (Climate Model CRCM 4.2.3 from the AMNO domain produced at ∼50 km resolution) were added as secondary information to take into account local heterogeneity and temporal dependencies. Geostatistical interpolation of the measured temperature was calculated using CRCM modelled data as a covariable and then compared to an ordinary kriging performed on a time series of mean temperature anomalies. Spherical distances between locations were calculated taking into account the curvature of the Earth with monthly semivariances being modelled using Cauchy variograms. Mean absolute error values (1.5 ± 1.2 °C) were calculated for the whole period using cross‐validation procedures. Errors were found to have the same order of magnitude in the central part of the study area where few recorded temperatures were available. Monthly mean temperature grids are publicly available through the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (http://url.in.rs/3P). Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society