Interannual climate variability change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in PMIP3 last millennium simulations

Abstract

In this study, we analyzed numerical experiments undertaken by 10 climate models participating in PMIP3 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) to examine the changes in interannual temperature variability and coefficient of variation (CV) of interannual precipitation in the warm period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA). With respect to the past millennium period, the MCA temperature variability decreases by 2.0% on average over the globe, and most of the decreases occur in low latitudes. In the LIA, temperature variability increases by a global average of 0.6%, which occurs primarily in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the western Pacific. For the CV of interannual precipitation, regional-scale changes are more significant than changes at the global scale, with a pattern of increased (decreased) CV in the midlatitudes of Eurasia and the northwestern Pacific in the MCA (LIA). The CV change ranges from −7.0% to 4.3% (from −6.3% to 5.4%), with a global average of −0.5% (−0.07%) in the MCA (LIA). Also, the variability changes are considerably larger in December–January–February with respect to both temperature and precipitation.