Investigating dynamic mechanisms for synchronous variation of East Asian and Australian summer monsoons over the last millennium

Abstract

The investigation into the past behavior of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and Australian summer monsoon (ASM) is potentially helpful for advancing our knowledge of projected future changes. Geological evidence supports an in-phase change of the two monsoon systems over the last millennium, but the dynamic mechanisms and timescale-dependence are not fully understood. Using model outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III, we investigated EASM and ASM variations, their phase relationship during the last millennium, and their dynamic mechanisms. According to selected “best-performance” models capable of reproducing reconstructed Asian–Australian monsoon changes, EASM and ASM showed significant in-phase changes only on centennial timescales, with intensified EASM/ASM during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and weakened monsoons during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Moreover, the synchronous variation was more robust during the LIA relative to the MCA. The strengthened (weakened) EASM during the MCA (LIA) is attributed to an enhanced (reduced) land–sea temperature contrast and a northward (southward) shift of the subtropical westerly jet stream during boreal summer. During the same period, the ASM was reinforced (suppressed) due to the enhanced (reduced) lower-level easterly from the western Pacific and southward (northward) shift of upper-level westerly during austral summer. Meanwhile, the stronger (weaker) EASM/ASM during the MCA (LIA) was associated with expansion (retreat) of the local Intertropical Convergence Zone and an enhanced (reduced) zonal temperature gradient over the equatorial Pacific. Our results imply that the synchronous change in the Asian–Australian monsoon may be caused by inherent solar variations, further strengthening previous findings.