Integration of machine learning prediction and heuristic optimization for mask delivery in COVID-19.

Abstract

The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has created huge demands for medical masks that need to be delivered to a lot of demand points to protect citizens. The efficiency of delivery is critical to the prevention and control of the epidemic. However, the huge demands for masks and massive number of demand points scattered make the problem highly complex. Moreover, the actual demands are often obtained late, and hence the time duration for solution calculation and mask delivery is often very limited. Based on our practical experience of medical mask delivery in response to COVID-19 in China, we present a hybrid machine learning and heuristic optimization method, which uses a deep learning model to predict the demand of each region, schedules first-echelon vehicles to pre-distribute the predicted number of masks from depot(s) to regional facilities in advance, reassigns demand points among different regions to balance the deviations of predicted demands from actual demands, and finally routes second-echelon vehicles to efficiently deliver masks to the demand points in each region. For the subproblems of demand point reassignment and two-batch routing whose complexities are significantly lower, we propose variable neighborhood tabu search heuristics to efficiently solve them. Application of the proposed method in emergency mask delivery in three megacities in China during the peak of COVID-19 demonstrated its significant performance advantages over other methods without pre-distribution or reassignment. We also discuss key success factors and lessons learned to facilitate the extension of our method to a wider range of problems.