Abstract
The food crisis that was triggered by climate change has swept the world lately. Climate change is affecting the pattern of the world that led to changes in the pattern of agricultural production as well. Changes in the pattern of production results in world food production schedule was delayed, and along with these changes, many countries export so that world food prices increase. Rising world food prices starting from US and then spread in the other parts of the world, including Indonesia. However, it is unknown how big relatedness of International food prices changes with food prices in Indonesia. This paper aims to analyze the connectedness between domestic rice market with international market, how long shock in international rice impact on the domestic market and to analyze interlinkage in domestic primary rice market. Using data rice price in indonesia and international rice price of FAO, writer found that market rice integrated both in domestic and foreign, so the fluctuations in both markets would affect each other Keywords: Food Crisis, Production Pattern, Domestic and International Market Integration
Highlights
The food crisis that was triggered by climate change has swept the world lately
This paper aims to analyze the connectedness between domestic rice market with international market, how long shock in international rice impact on the domestic market and to analyze interlinkage in domestic primary rice market
Pada α (5% dan 1%), kedua variabel memiliki setidaknya dua kointegrasi
Summary
Salah satu cara untuk menentukan lag berapa yang akan digunakan dalam model, penggunaan criteria seperti Akaike dan Schwarz sangat bermanfaat. Peneliti selanjutnya memilih menggunakan model dengan lag yang terpilih oleh criteria tersebut. Dengan menggunakan uji Lag Length Criteria, lag 2 merupakan lag yang terpilih oleh AIC dan SIC. Untuk memastikan stabilitas model dengan menggunakan lag 2, uji stabilitas dengan melihat akar unit dilakukan, dan hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa model VAR dengan lag 2 stabil. Salah satu syarat VECM adalah variabel tersebut terkointegrasi. Untuk menjawab salah satu tujuan penelitian, tentang adanya hubungan jangka panjang harga beras domestic dengan dunia, Johansen test cointegration digunakan. Dari hasil test didapat bahwa pada α (5% dan 1%), diindikasikan ada dua kointegrasi. Maka model VAR yang akan digunakan adalah VECM
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