Information criteria for structured parameter selection in high-dimensional tree and graph models

Abstract

Parameter selection in high-dimensional models is typically fine-tuned in a way that keeps the (relative) number of false positives under control. This is because otherwise the few true positives may be dominated by the many possible false positives. This happens, for instance, when the selection follows from a naive optimisation of an information criterion, such as AIC or Mallows's Cp. It can be argued that the overestimation of the model comes from the optimisation process itself changing the statistics of the selected variables, in a way that the information criterion no longer reflects the true divergence between the selected model and the data generating process. Using lasso, the overestimation can also be linked to the shrinkage estimator, which makes the selection too tolerant of false positive selections. For these reasons, this paper works on refined information criteria, carefully balancing false positives and false negatives, for use with estimators without shrinkage. In particular, the paper develops corrected Mallows's Cp criteria for structured selection in trees and graphical models.