Abstract
Viewing the development of the stock market in Ukraine, the economy, which world financial organizations characterize as small and open, is largely determined by the trends formed by the global stock markets and leading stock exchanges. Therefore, the study aims to analyze Ukraine’s stock market, the world stock market, stock markets in the regions, and to assess their mutual influence. The study uses the data of the World Federation of Exchanges and National Securities and Stock Market Commission (Ukraine) from 2015 to 2020. Stock market performance forecasts are built using triple exponential smoothing. Based on pairwise correlation coefficients, the existence of a significant dependence in the development of the world stock market on the development of the American stock market was determined. Regarding the Ukrainian stock exchanges, only SE “PFTS” demonstrated its dependence on the US stock market. The results of the regression model based on an exponentially smoothed series of trading volumes in all markets showed that variations in the volume of trading on the world stock market are due to the situation on the US stock markets. Trading volume dynamics on Ukrainian stock exchanges such as SE “PFTS” and SE “Perspektiva” is almost 50% determined by the development of stock markets in the American region. Although Ukraine is geographically located in Europe, the results show a lack of significant links and the impacts of stock markets in this region on the major Ukrainian stock exchanges and the stock market as a whole.
Highlights
The dependence of the stock markets’ development on each other has become a focus of attention since the 2008 global financial crisis
Build the forecast so that later values become more weighted than the values of the beginning of the As of 2020, the World Federation of Exchanges analyzed period
Describes trading volumes based on the use of the moving average method and the exponen- Ukraine is listed by the World Federation of tial smoothing method
Summary
The dependence of the stock markets’ development on each other has become a focus of attention since the 2008 global financial crisis. Studying the financial secu- of correlation and the impact of stock markets rity of Ukraine and Poland, Shkolnyk et al (2020) in certain regions of the world on the functionanalyzed the state of financial markets as the main ing of the stock market in Ukraine and individelements influencing the level of financial security ual stock exchanges, including in the future peof these countries. Association as an example, Shkolnyk et al (2019) and included structural analysis of the behavior studied the relationship between the enhanced of stock markets in three main regions – Asiarole of financial markets, which manifests itself in Pacific, Americas, and Europe-Middle East-Africa the financialization of the economy, and identified (EMEA) It is based on the data from the World their role in shaping economic growth and finan- Federation of Stock Exchanges. Confirm or refute the hypothesis of the impact of the trend value for the previous period
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