Influence of local market economic analysis on PV generation stochastic approach in LV distribution networks

Abstract

This work investigates the influence of the local photovoltaic (PV) market in the analysis of the photovoltaic distributed generation (PVDG) impacts on LV networks. The new methodology proposed by this work indicates: the PV penetration based on different scenarios and technology diffusion evaluation; the probability of technical violation occurrence due to PVDG connection; and the location of the critical points over the distribution system, aiding in the efficient management of investment in network reinforcements. The novelty of this methodology refers to the inclusion of an economic analysis within the stochastic approach, considering the influence of local market in the technical assessment. Furthermore, this methodology is applied to a real distribution feeder in Brazil. Firstly, an economic analysis of the consumers of the studied circuit is carried out to estimate the PVDG penetration. Next, Monte Carlo Simulations are performed through OpenDSS considering network parameters, real local irradiance and load curves measured by advanced metering infrastructure. Therefore, it is possible to consider the uncertainties associated with the connection of PV systems and the variation of consumer load. One of the main results of this study is that the proposed methodology notices less technical violations than the methodology that is traditionally used in the literature and does not consider the influence of the local market. In addition, technical violations tend to occur in different transformers for each methodology. This happens because the traditional methodology considers that every consumer has the same probability of installing PVDG, including those classified as not economically able according to the analysis proposed in this article.