A modified Bass model to calculate PVDG hosting capacity in LV networks

Abstract

This work proposes a new stochastic model to address the impact of photovoltaic distributed generation (PVDG) diffusion in LV networks. The proposed methodology is based on Bass diffusion model, but with an individual approach for each consumer instead of the traditional collective one. As a result, it provides a means to calculate the individual probability of adopting a photovoltaic (PV) system considering the influence of local PV market, which makes it possible to assess the PVDG impact over time and throughout distribution networks. Therefore, the developed tool allows identifying when and where technical violations are most likely to occur in a distribution grid, supporting utilities to improve PVDG hosting capacity (HC). Finally, this work applies the developed methodology on a real distribution network, using the software OpenDSS. The results show the HC of the studied feeder, the year in which the HC limit will probably be reached and the distribution transformers most likely to have overvoltage issues in their LV circuit. In addition, the proposed methodology permits identifying Volt-Var control as an example of an easy-to-implement solution that could effectively deal with overvoltage issues due to PVDG penetration.