Influence of climate change on the predicted distributions of the genus Tympanoctomys (Rodentia, Hystricomorpha, Octodontidae), and their conservation implications

Abstract

Abstract Viscacha rats (genus Tympanoctomys Yepes, 1942) are ecologically, physiologically, and behaviorally unusual octodontid rodents endemic to the Monte and Patagonian desert biomes of Argentina. The geographic ranges of the different species of Tympanoctomys have been described in general terms but have not been associated with spatial and climate data. Within species, populations are patchily distributed and genetically distinct. We investigated the predicted distribution of Tympanoctomys and the influence of climate fluctuations on their geographic range in historical, current, and future, scenarios. Our objectives were to characterize the environmental niche of the genus, propose a paleoclimatic context for the oldest fossils, characterize the environmental niches for T. barrerae and T. kirchnerorum, and forecast potential future distributions for these taxa. Ecological niche models were constructed using occurrence records from 1941 to the present wherein we identified several precipitation and temperature variables as important predictors of the geographic distributions of the genus, and the species T. barrerae and T. kirchnerorum. Based on our models’ results, we hypothesize that the distribution of Tympanoctomys has contracted from historical to modern times. At the species level, T. kirchnerorum likely experienced the most dramatic change, suffering a large contraction of its historical distribution resulting in its limited present distribution. Given these findings, projected future climate fluctuations and global warming are expected to affect the distributions and persistence of these species.