Inferring and evaluating satellite-based constraints on NOx emissions estimates in air quality simulations

Abstract

Abstract. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns can provide top-down observational constraints on emissions estimates of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Mass-balance-based methods are often applied for this purpose but do not isolate near-surface emissions from those aloft, such as lightning emissions. Here, we introduce an inverse modeling framework that couples satellite chemical data assimilation to a chemical transport model. In the framework, satellite-constrained emissions totals are inferred using model simulations with and without data assimilation in the iterative finite-difference mass-balance method. The approach improves the finite-difference mass-balance inversion by isolating the near-surface emissions increment. We apply the framework to separately estimate lightning and anthropogenic NOx emissions over the Northern Hemisphere for 2019. Using overlapping observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI), we compare separate NOx emissions inferences from these satellite instruments, as well as the impacts of emissions changes on modeled NO2 and O3. OMI inferences of anthropogenic emissions consistently lead to larger emissions than TROPOMI inferences, attributed to a low bias in TROPOMI NO2 retrievals. Updated lightning NOx emissions from either satellite improve the chemical transport model's low tropospheric O3 bias. The combined lighting and anthropogenic emissions updates improve the model's ability to reproduce measured ozone by adjusting natural, long-range, and local pollution contributions. Thus, the framework informs and supports the design of domestic and international control strategies.