Increased southerly and easterly water vapor transport contributed to the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation over the Three-River Headwaters in the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The Three-River Headwaters (TRH) region in the Tibetan Plateau is vulnerable to climate change; changes in summer (June–August) precipitation have a significant impact on water security and sustainability in both local and downstream areas. However, the changes in summer precipitation of different intensities over the TRH region, along with their influencing factors, remain unclear. In this study, we used observational and ERA5 reanalysis data and employed a precipitation categorization and water vapor budget analysis to quantify the categorized precipitation variations and investigate their possible linkages with the water vapor budget. Our results showed an increasing trend in summer precipitation at a rate of 0.9 mm per year (p < 0.1) during 1979–2020, with a significant dry-to-wet transition in 2002. The category ‘very heavy precipitation’ (≥10 mm d−1) contributed 65.1% of the increased summer precipitation, which occurred frequently in the northern TRH region. The dry-to-wet transition was caused by the effects of varied atmospheric circulations in each subregion. Southwesterly water vapor transport through the southern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the western TRH region (158.2%), while southeasterly water vapor transport through the eastern boundary was responsible for the increased net water vapor flux in the central TRH (155.2%) and eastern TRH (229.2%) regions. Therefore, we inferred that the dry-to-wet transition of summer precipitation and the increased ‘very heavy precipitation’ over the TRH was caused by increased easterly and southerly water vapor transport.