Abstract
The heavily populated highlands of Ethiopia are currently at low risk for malaria transmission, but global warming may change the risk level significantly. The inhabitants of the Ethiopian Highlands are highly vulnerable to this potential hazard due to their lack of immunity. Here, we identify hotspots within the Highlands where projected warming towards the end of the 21st century will increase the risk of malaria transmission significantly. Based on projected temperature changes, we conclude that about a third of the region’s population and roughly 14% of its land area will become at high risk for malaria transmission within a century under the high-emissions-no-mitigation baseline scenario for future climate change. Our analysis combines dynamically down-scaled regional climate projections, high resolution satellite observations of temperature, and a village-scale malaria transmission model that was developed based on climatic, environmental, entomological, and medical data collected by our group in comprehensive multi-year field surveys of villages in this region. The projected impacts of global warming on malaria transmission in Africa have been controversial. We propose a framework that reconciles seemingly contradictory conclusions, and informs strategies for climate adaptation not only over the Ethiopian Highlands but broadly over Africa, where more than 90% of malaria deaths occur every year.
Highlights
Pronounced increases in malaria have been reported widely over the East African Highlands in the late 20th century [1–4]
Under the high-emissions-nomitigation baseline scenario of future GHG emissions, we project that approximately 14% of the country’s land area will be at high-risk for P.f. malaria by the year 2100, hosting about a third of the national population (27 million and 33 million people based on the population estimate for year 2010 and 2100 [29], respectively)
The low-risk areas for P.f. malaria will host about 42% of the population in 2100, yet this area will be limited to merely 11% of the national land, which includes Addis Ababa
Summary
Pronounced increases in malaria have been reported widely over the East African Highlands in the late 20th century [1–4]. The increased malaria transmission over the East African Highlands has been explained by observed warming [7–9], while other studies explain the surge of malaria by an increase in climate variability [10–12], or other factors such as drug resistance, land-use change, and population migration [13]. 2000 [7, 8]), the projected temperature rise in the future (as high as 4 °C by 2100 [14]) leaves little room for disputing the potential impact of warming on malaria transmission in highland areas. The impact of spatial and temporal variability in rainfall was not considered in this analysis Most of those populated areas in the Highlands receive more than 800 mm of rainfall annually (supplementary figure 1(b)), rainfall is not likely a limiting factor of malaria transmission [17]. The Ethiopian Highlands are vulnerable to potential impacts of warming on malaria transmission
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