Abstract
Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.
Highlights
Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios
Maximum Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) prevalence values reach about 70% over Central Africa and parts of West Africa (Fig. 1a)
Very low prevalence values are shown over the plateau of East Africa, the South of Namibia, Botswana, and South Africa (Fig. 1a)
Summary
Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and societies. We investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Malaria is a climate sensitive disease, with transmission often seasonal, as specific temperature and rainfall conditions are necessary for the development of Anopheles mosquitoes and Plasmodium parasites[6,7]. Funestus are the primary malaria vectors in the worst-affected regions of Africa[8] They are present when humidity exceeds at least 40% but adult mosquitoes die rapidly above 38 °C9. While control efforts and economical development have been successful in reducing transmission, changing climate conditions can still impact both the seasonality and mean intensity of malaria transmission[12]
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