Abstract
An epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a FMD-free country with large exports of livestock and livestock products would result in profound economic damage. This could be reduced by rapid and efficient control of the disease spread. The objectives of this study were to estimate the economic impact of a hypothetical FMD outbreak in Denmark based on changes to the economic assumptions of the model, and to investigate whether the control of an FMD epidemic can be improved by combining the enlargement of protection or surveillance zones with pre-emptive depopulation or emergency vaccination. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was used to simulate the spread of FMD in Denmark. The control strategies were the basic EU and Danish strategy, pre-emptive depopulation, suppressive or protective vaccination, enlarging protection or surveillance zones, and a combination of pre-emptive depopulation or emergency vaccination with enlarged protection or surveillance zones. Herds are detected either based on basic detection through the appearance of clinical signs, or as a result of surveillance in the control zones. The economic analyses consisted of direct costs and export losses. Sensitivity analysis was performed on uncertain and potentially influential input parameters. Enlarging the surveillance zones from 10 to 15 km, combined with pre-emptive depopulation over a 1-km radius around detected herds resulted in the lowest total costs. This was still the case even when the different input parameters were changed in the sensitivity analysis. Changing the resources for clinical surveillance did not affect the epidemic consequences. In conclusion, an FMD epidemic in Denmark would have a larger economic impact on the agricultural sector than previously anticipated. Furthermore, the control of a potential FMD outbreak in Denmark may be improved by combining pre-emptive depopulation with an enlarged protection or surveillance zone.
Highlights
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting ruminants and pigs (1–3), and an epidemic may have a large economic impact on FMD-free countries and regions (4, 5)
Pre-emptive depopulation following the detection of 10 infected herds, combined with enlarging the surveillance zone from 10 to 15 km (Dep10H-surveillance zone to 15 km (SZ15)) resulted in the lowest total costs (Table 1)
The total costs of the epidemics using this scenario did not significantly differ from those using pre-emptive depopulation following the detection of 10 infected herds combined with enlarging the protection zone from 3 to 5 km (Dep10H-protection zone to 5 km (PZ5))
Summary
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting ruminants and pigs (1–3), and an epidemic may have a large economic impact on FMD-free countries and regions (4, 5). In an FMD-free country with large exports of livestock and livestock products, it is likely that the relevance of an outbreak would not be restricted to the domestic market of the affected country, but it might affect the international market (6). The European Union (EU), on the other hand, allows affected countries to export to other member states from regions confirmed to be free of the disease (8). A short export ban on all livestock products would be imposed at the beginning of the outbreak to prevent disease spread to other member states. During the 2007 UK epidemic, the EU imposed restrictions on exports of livestock and livestock products from the UK to other member states (9)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary 
Published Version (
Free)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call