Abstract
The objectives of this study were to assess whether current surveillance capacity is sufficient to fulfill EU and Danish regulations to control a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark, and whether enlarging the protection and/or surveillance zones could minimize economic losses. The stochastic spatial simulation model DTU-DADS was further developed to simulate clinical surveillance of herds within the protection and surveillance zones and used to model spread of FMD between herds. A queuing system was included in the model, and based on daily surveillance capacity, which was 450 herds per day, it was decided whether herds appointed for surveillance would be surveyed on the current day or added to the queue. The model was run with a basic scenario representing the EU and Danish regulations, which includes a 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zone around detected herds. In alternative scenarios, the protection zone was enlarged to 5 km, the surveillance zone was enlarged to 15 or 20 km, or a combined enlargement of the protection and surveillance zones was modelled. Sensitivity analysis included changing surveillance capacity to 200, 350 or 600 herds per day, frequency of repeated visits for herds in overlapping surveillance zones from every 14 days to every 7, 21 and 30 days, and the size of the zones combined with a surveillance capacity increased to 600 herds per day. The results showed that the default surveillance capacity is sufficient to survey herds on time. Extra resources for surveillance did not improve the situation, but fewer resources could result in larger epidemics and costs. Enlarging the protection zone was a better strategy than the basic scenario. Despite that enlarging the surveillance zone might result in shorter epidemic duration, and lower number of affected herds, it resulted frequently in larger economic losses.
Highlights
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting ruminants and pigs [1,2,3], and may have a large economic impact on FMD-free countries and regions, in case of an epidemic [4,5].Following the FMD epidemic within the European Union (EU) in 2001, the European Commission updated a set of regulations and measures to control possible future epidemics of FMD in its member states [6,7]
The question remains to whether it is possible to minimize the economic loss due to an FMD epidemic in a large exporting country of livestock and livestock products such as Denmark, without the need to kill a large number of animals
Basic scenario Out of the 5,000 iterations that represented the 5 different index herd types, there were 13 iterations in which the epidemics fade out before the disease was detected. All of these epidemics started in small sheep herds
Summary
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting ruminants and pigs [1,2,3], and may have a large economic impact on FMD-free countries and regions, in case of an epidemic [4,5].Following the FMD epidemic within the European Union (EU) in 2001, the European Commission updated a set of regulations and measures to control possible future epidemics of FMD in its member states [6,7]. The measures include, among others, depopulation of detected herds and establishing 3 km protection and 10 km surveillance zones around them, in which movement restrictions and surveillance of herds are performed. As these measures, may not be sufficient to control an expanding or already widespread epidemic, additional control measures must be considered, such as emergency vaccination [7] and/or preemptive depopulation [8]. From economic standpoint, protective emergency vaccination seems not to be a recommended control strategy in case of an epidemic in Denmark [10]. The question remains to whether it is possible to minimize the economic loss due to an FMD epidemic in a large exporting country of livestock and livestock products such as Denmark, without the need to kill a large number of animals
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
