Improving monthly streamflow forecasts through assimilation of observed streamflow for rainfall-dominated basins across the CONUS

Abstract

Among different sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling (i.e., model structure, parameter estimation, input data, etc.), consecutive error reduction of model initial conditions can prevent a model from drifting away from reality and consequently improving model estimates. Most approaches that evaluated the correction of initial conditions through data assimilation (DA) have focused on improving hydrologic model simulations (i.e., under observed forcings) rather than evaluating the model performance in a forecasting context. This paper investigates the utility of Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation in which available observed streamflow is exploited to update state variables of a conceptual water balance model for forecasting monthly streamflow over 340 rainfall-dominated river basins across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our results demonstrate that after EnKF application, streamflow simulation skill improves in terms of both Relative Root Mean Square Error (R-RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) for almost 90% of the selected river basins. Evaluating the model performance under different flow conditions shows that EnKF has stronger positive effect on monthly low flow predictions comparing to monthly high flows particularly during the summer season. The utility of EnKF is also assessed in the context of 1-month ahead streamflow forecasting. Due to the updated model initial conditions, streamflow forecasts are improved throughout the year even though the skill in hydrologic forecasts is predominantly dependent on the accuracy of precipitation forecasts.