Impacts of China's import ban on US state-level paper waste exports

Abstract

The import ban by China on paper waste has reshaped waste export dynamics in the United States. Using U.S. Census data between 2002 and 2022, the study quantifies a 10.4 % average decline in U.S. paper waste exports post-ban, while spotlighting emerging export destinations like India, Southeast Asia, and the EU. Within this landscape, California stood out with a per capita export drop from 170 to 140 kg/person. Additionally, the export composition changed, favoring unbleached kraft or paperboard at 69.8 % of total exports. When simulating the environmental and social outcomes of shifting to domestic waste management, potential reductions in ozone depletion by up to 4000 %, global warming by 90 %, and social costs from $55 billion to $5 billion were observed. The findings underscore the need for strategic domestic waste management policies to optimize environmental, economic, and social outcomes.