Impacto económico del aumento en el precio de la gasolina en México: un análisis de cointegración y vectores autorregresivos

Abstract

This article shows that the rise in the cost of low and high octane gasoline has not caused inflation in Mexico. Through an error correction model (VEC), using information from the consumer price index (CPI) and the low and high octane gasoline index for the period 2002 to 2009, the Granger-Causality test shows that CPI and Magna and Premium gasoline indexes, as well as annualized percentage changes did not cause inflation. The impulse response function and the decomposition analysis of variance in the VEC and VAR models indicate that there is not a significant effect on the level of the consumer price index during the first four months, this is due to low household spending on gasoline (3.7% of total) combined with the inelasticity of gasoline demand and the small weight of the fuel as an input in the production process (0.18% in intermediate goods and final goods 0.55% ) and the pricing of gasoline by the Federal Government. Although the gasoline indexes and the consumer price index are cointegrated, their impact on the CPI is not significant, reflecting the price control of gasoline in Mexico