Abstract

ObjectiveTo assess the potential epidemiologic and economic impact of vaccination with the human papillomavirus (HPV) quadrivalent (types 6/11/16/18) vaccine in Spain. MethodsWe used a transmission dynamic model developed for the United Kingdom and applied to Spain by using Spanish-specific epidemiologic and economic data obtained from the literature, databases, and previous epidemiological studies. It was assumed that any vaccination strategy would be implemented in combination with current HPV screening and treatment programs. The strategy of routine vaccination of a cohort of 11-year-old girls was used, alone or in combination with catch-up vaccination in 12-24-year olds. ResultsIn the long term, vaccination of girls and young women would reduce the incidence of cervical cancer by 86%, precancerous cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) II/III lesions by 85%, CIN I by 79% and genital warts by 81% related to HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18. Overall, vaccination would reduce the total cost related to HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18 infections by 83.5%. Catch-up vaccination of 12 to 24-year-old females would save 77% of the costs avoided in the first 10 years of the program. In the first few years of vaccination, most of the cases and costs avoided would be attributable to the prevention of HPV-6- and 11-related diseases. ConclusionsImplementation of vaccination programs with the HPV quadrivalent vaccine, combined with current screening programs, would significantly reduce the number of cases of cervical cancer, precancerous lesions and genital warts in Spain. Vaccination of girls and women aged 12 to 24 years not included in routine vaccination programs would result in a greater and earlier reduction in the incidence of diseases related to HPV 6, 11, 16 and 18.

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