Impact of Trade Restrictions on the Russian Forest Industry: Evidence from Siberian Timber Producers

Abstract

In 2022, the Russian forest sector was severely affected by the government’s ban on the export of unprocessed timber and trade sanctions imposed by several countries. It is generally recognized that the regions of the Russian North-West are the most affected by trade barriers that have emerged. Against this background, the impact of bilateral trade restrictions on timber companies in the Asian part of Russia is not discussed. Nevertheless, the forest industry is an important sector of the Siberian economy that has an economic, social and environmental impact on the life of local communities. This paper analyzes the differences among Siberian timber companies in their response to the crisis depending on three factors: industrial specialization, scale of revenue and regional location. The results show that in 2022 the highest median revenues and net profits were generated by small firms that were focused on the domestic market and benefited from reduced competition due to sanctions. There is also evidence that spatial heterogeneity in the response to the crisis may be due to the different support measures of regional authorities and the proximity of the region to border points. We argue that the current conditions may become a new driver for the timber industry development, aimed at the growth of added value and expansion of domestic demand for wood products.