Abstract
Illegal timber harvesting and trafficking is one of the most important economic and environmental problems in the Russian Federation. Illegal logging leads to degradation of forests and a shortage of timber in wood industries. One of the measures to counter illegal logging is the ban on the export of raw wood, which will take effect on January 1, 2022. However, such a measure will lead not only to control over the circulation of illegal timber, but also to a number of economic consequences. The impact of the ban on the inland market can be assessed using the point sectoral model of the forestry complex (PSM‑fc). The results of scenario calculations show that a ban on the export of raw materials can lead to a reduction in logging volumes and an increase in the share of products of deeper processing in exports
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