Impact of Past and Future Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of an Endangered Montane Shrub Lonicera oblata and Its Conservation Implications

Yuan-Mi Wu,Feng-Wei Lei,Zhi-Xiang Zhang,Xue-Li Shen,Xian-Yun Mu,Ling Tong

doi:10.3390/f12020125

Abstract

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, understanding how organisms respond to climate change will shed light on the conservation of endangered species. In this study, we modeled the distributional dynamics of a critically endangered montane shrub Lonicera oblata in response to climate change under different periods by building a comprehensive habitat suitability model considering the effects of soil and vegetation conditions. Our results indicated that the current suitable habitats for L. oblata are located scarcely in North China. Historical modeling indicated that L. oblata achieved its maximum potential distribution in the last interglacial period which covered southwest China, while its distribution area decreased for almost 50% during the last glacial maximum. It further contracted during the middle Holocene to a distribution resembling the current pattern. Future modeling showed that the suitable habitats of L. oblata contracted dramatically, and populations were fragmentedly distributed in these areas. As a whole, the distribution of L. oblata showed significant migration northward in latitude but no altitudinal shift. Several mountains in North China may provide future stable climatic areas for L. oblata, particularly, the intersections between the Taihang and Yan mountains. Our study strongly suggested that the endangered montane shrub L. oblata are sensitive to climate change, and the results provide new insights into the conservation of it and other endangered species.

Highlights

There are four billion species that have evolved on Earth over the last 3.5 billion years, and approximately 99% of them have gone extinct [1], during the “BigFive” mass extinctions [2,3,4]
The comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model showed that the current suitable habitats of L. oblata were primarily located in two regions: northern
We comprehensively considered the bioclimatic, UV-B, topographical, soil, vegetation, and land-use factors to simulate the potential distribution for L. oblata

Summary

Introduction

There are four billion species that have evolved on Earth over the last 3.5 billion years, and approximately 99% of them have gone extinct [1], during the “BigFive” mass extinctions [2,3,4]. Species are continuing to disappear, as the earth is currently experiencing a possible sixth mass extinction because of anthropogenic climate change [5]. Understanding the dynamics of the organisms’ distributions in response to climate change can help to develop effective conservation strategies [11]. Climate change is recognized as one of the most important drivers of biodiversity patterns and species distributions [12,13,14]. Climatic periodic reciprocating oscillations between the glacial and interglacial periods and other sudden events during geological history had major effects on contemporary geographical distribution patterns of vegetation [15,16,17]. The two contrasting extremes of climate during the late Quaternary were the Last Interglacial (LIG, about 140–120 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum

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Discussion

Conclusion