Potential Benefits of Potato Yield at Two Sites of Agro-Pastoral Ecotone in North China Under Future Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change has had a considerable impact on potato production in Agro-Pastoral Ecotone (APE) in North China over the past several decades and it will continue to influence the growth of potato. Thus, understanding the impact of climate change on potato production is critical for future food security in this region. In this study, the calibrated APSIM-Potato model was used to assess the impact of future climate change on potato at Zhangbei (ZB) and Wuchuan (WC) experimental stations. The daily climate data were statistically downscaled from 32 global climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that potato yield under rainfed condition at ZB site respectively increased by 7.3% and 6.7% in the 2030s, 25.8% and 21.8% in the 2060s and 44.7% and 51.9% in 2090s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Potato yield under irrigated condition at WC site increased respectively by 5.5%, 10.0% and 15.1% in the 2030s, 2060s and 2090s under RCP4.5 scenario and by 5.7%, 20.9% and 41.1% under RCP8.5 scenario. Both evapotranspiration and water use efficiency increased under future climate change. Based on the statistical analysis, 70% of the variation in potato yield under rainfed condition at ZB site and 50% of it under irrigated condition at WC site were driven by future climate change. We concluded that rainfed potato yield will be enhanced more by future climate change than irrigation system. Our study filled the knowledge gap in understanding the potential effects of future climate change on potato production under different water management measures, and will be useful in developing adaptable strategies to enhance potato yield in the APE region under future climate change.