Impact of electric passenger automobiles on utility system loads, 1985--2000

Abstract

This report presents the results of a study of the future of electric passenger vehicles. The study involved three tasks: developing models of supply and demand for electric vehicles, and projecting vehicle sales and stock of electric vehicles for the period 1985 to 2000, as well as the impact of these vehicles on utility loads. The supply model which includes an Electric Vehicle Design Model, calculates factors such as weight, battery size, and cost of a vehicle from user-supplied design characteristics. A key variable is the price of electric vehicles over the period 1985 to 2000. The price concept employed here is that of ''full'' price for owning and operating a vehicle. In the next stage of the analysis, calculation of electric vehicle sales and stocks, the ''hedonic'' approach is adopted which states that consumers' demand for a good is a derived demand for a bundle of characteristics (comfort, cost, performance, and the like) provided by the vehicle. Using this approach, a demand model was developed that forecasts the future stock and sales of electric vehicles and their competitors--internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. The final step in the analysis is the calculation of electricity loads and air quality impacts on a national basis for the period 1985 to 2000, and also for New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. By end of the century, the models predict that approximately 141 million passenger vehicles will be on the road, and that 11 to 13 million of these will be electric vehicles, incorporating an advanced battery. This projection, of course, depends on a variety of factors, particularly on the relative full prices of electric and ICE vehicles. (ERA citation 03:052948)