Abstract
BackgroundDisaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region.MethodsThe impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications.ResultsThe coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828.ConclusionsWe have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns.
Highlights
Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region
This paper focuses on the economic impact of deaths attributable to natural and technological disasters
Conceptual framework The study used the Production Function (PF) analytical framework to estimate the loss in gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to deaths related to disasters in the Region
Summary
Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. This paper focuses on the economic impact of deaths attributable to natural and technological disasters. Technological disasters include accidents, chemical accidents and urban fires. About 96.4% (1,377,318) of those deaths occurred in developing countries, of which 38% (520,165) occurred in the countries that comprise the African Region of the World Health Organization (WHO). About 96% (499,510) of the disaster-related deaths in the Region (page number not for citation purposes)
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