The burden of natural and technological disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product (GDP) in the WHO Africa Region

Abstract

The WHO Africa region has the highest disaster mortality rate compared to the other five regions of the organization. Those deaths are hypothesized to have significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. We estimated the impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data (from the UNDP and the World Bank publications) on 45 out of 46 countries in the WHO African Region. The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The abovementioned explanatory variables were found to have statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.018. We have demonstrated that disaster mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increase in educational enrolment, they should always recall that investments in strengthening national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively shall yield significant economic returns.