Impact of CO 2-induced climate change on residential heating and cooling energy requirements in Ontario, Canada

Abstract

Space-heating energy requirements per household (or customer) for different fuels for the heating season (October–March), and space-cooling energy requirements per household for the cooling season (July–September), in Ontario, were computed for two scenarios of climate change caused by a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations (2 × CO 2) assumed to occur during 2025–2065. These computations were done by developing appropriate regression equations in the present climate and then using them for the 2 × CO 2 climate scenarios. Total heating energy consumption was computed by taking into consideration three population growth scenarios. A sensitivity analysis which provides the total heating energy consumption for various increases in temperature and number of households is presented. Compared to 1976–1983 consumption, total space-heating energy consumption/household in the two climate scenarios would decrease by 31–45%. Natural gas consumption/customer would decrease by 19–28% and the oil and electricity consumption/customer would decrease by 49–71%. The actual total energy consumption in the year 2065 for medium (3.6% per decade) and low (1.9% per decade) population growth scenarios is estimated to be less than the current consumption; however the consumption in 2065 would be higher for a high (11.7% per decade) population growth scenario despite climatic warming. The space-cooling energy requirement would increase by 6–7% in the 2 × CO 2 climate scenarios but would still be only 10% of the heating consumption. Cooling-season length would increase, thereby forcing utilities to alter their operation patterns.