Potential impacts of a CO 2-induced climate change using the GISS scenario on agriculture in Quebec, Canada

Abstract

This study examines the potential impacts of a climate change resulting from an effective doubling of atmospheric CO 2 on the potential and anticipated yields of a variety of agricultural crops including corn, soya, potatoes, wheat, phaseolus beans, sorghum, barley, oats, rapeseed and sunflowers and two horticultural crops namely apples and grapes, for southern Quebec. The GISS climate change scenario is used. Our results show that yields would increase for some crops such as corn, soybeans, potatoes, phaseolus beans and sorghum and would decrease for the cereal and oilseed crops, namely wheat, barley, oats, sunflowers and rapeseed. Production opportunities for apples and grapes are enhanced. Also it would seem that the more northerly regions of Abitibi-Témiscamingue and Lac St-Jean would benefit most, in terms of agriculture, from a CO 2-induced climate change.