Impact of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities on ecosystem net primary productivity in India during 2001–2019

Abstract

Climate change and anthropogenic activities have altered the terrestrial ecosystem dynamics around the globe. Due to the complex ecosystem-atmosphere interactions at different scales, these impacts are difficult to quantify and are poorly understood, especially in developing countries with limited ground-based observations. This study analyzed the impact of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities on ecosystem net primary productivity (NPP) in India using remote sensing-based observations, correlation analysis, and Residual Trend analysis (RESTREND). Using different climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation, along with Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) and NPP maps, we first classified the ecosystems (ES) into two categories: natural ecosystems – influenced only by climate change (ESc), covering about 19.7% of the area, and human-influenced ecosystems – influenced by both climate change and anthropogenic activities (ESc+a), covering about 80.3% of the area. RESTREND analysis was performed on both ESc and ESc+a to analyze the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in NPP. The correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables suggested that precipitation was the dominant control of NPP in about 72% area, whereas temperature and solar radiation controlled NPP in Himalayan and forest-dominated regions, respectively. The human-influenced ecosystems (ESc+a) experienced an increasing trend in NPP, whereas natural ecosystems (ESc) experienced a decreasing trend, particularly in forest-dominated regions. Overall, NPP increased in the country during the study duration. The contributions of climatic changes and anthropogenic activities varied spatially and temporally. In general, climatic factors enhanced the NPP, whereas human activities contributed to a slight decline in NPP. These findings improve our understanding of how ecosystems in India are influenced by climate change and anthropogenic activities in recent decades. The results from this study will aid in identifying ecological hotspots and key drivers for better ecosystem management strategies.