Impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease in Vietnam: A modelling study

Abstract

BackgroundNew prevention strategies for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are emerging, but it is unclear if they will be cost-effective in low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of two strategies to prevent RSV disease in young children in Vietnam. MethodsWe used a static cohort model with a finely disaggregated age structure (weeks of age <5 years) to calculate the RSV disease burden in Vietnam, with and without a single dose of maternal vaccine (RSVpreF, Pfizer) or of monoclonal antibody (Nirsevimab, Sanofi, Astra Zeneca). Each strategy was compared to no pharmaceutical intervention, and to each other. We assumed both strategies would be administered year round over a ten-year period. The primary outcome measure was the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted, from a societal perspective. We ran probabilistic and deterministic uncertainty analyses. ResultsWith central input assumptions for RSVpreF vaccine ($25/dose, 69 % efficacy, 6 months protection) and Nirsevimab ($25/dose, 77 % efficacy, 5 months protection), both options had similar cost-effectiveness ($3442 versus $3367 per DALY averted) when compared separately to no pharmaceutical intervention. RSVpreF vaccine had a lower net cost than Nirsevimab (net discounted cost of $213 m versus $264 m) but prevented fewer RSV deaths (24 % versus 31 %). Our results were very sensitive to assumptions about the dose price, efficacy, and duration of protection. At $5/dose and a willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.5 times the national GDP per capita, both prevention strategies have the potential to be cost-effective. ConclusionsRSVpreF vaccine and Nirsevimab may be cost-effective in Vietnam if appropriately priced.