Identifying the drivers of land expansion and evaluating multi-scenario simulation of land use: A case study of Mashan County, China

Abstract

To reduce land conflicts and improve the coordination of human activities and land use, it is crucial to conduct thorough research on sustainable land management and optimization. In this study, we introduce a new framework for identifying the drivers of land expansion and evaluating multi-scenario simulation of land use. Using Mashan County in China for a case study, the results indicate that the areas of cultivated land and grassland are gradually decreasing, while the building area is gradually increasing, the development probability of cultivated land and forest land is relatively high. Ecological land is primarily influenced by elevation, population density and temperature. In contrast, the expansion of building land is most significantly influenced by gross domestic product (GDP). The prediction result indicates that building land will continue to expand in the future, occupying more ecological space under economic development scenarios. Forest land is expected to increase under the ecological protection scenario, with the smallest expansion of building land, and cultivated land is likely to become a central area for all stakeholders. Our results suggest that adopting the ecological protection scenario is an appropriate strategy for Mashan County's sustainable development. This study provides a better understanding of the complex conflict between ecology and the economy, and offers policy insights for promoting sustainable land use.