Identifying human elephant conflict hotspots through satellite remote sensing and GIS to support conflict mitigation

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Human-elephant conflict (HEC) is a significant issue in Sri Lanka and many parts of the world where elephants and humans coexist. To address HEC, this study integrates remote sensing and GIS analysis, focusing on monitoring changes in greenery. The study prepared the latest land cover and land use (LCLU) maps with Sentinel-2 satellite data, correlating them with reported HEC incidents reported in 2021 and 2022 to identify HEC hotspots in two forest-dominated regions of Southeast Sri Lanka. High-resolution sentinel-2 satellite imagery were used to detect areas of human activities and elephant habitats in proximity to each other. Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classification methods were used for LCLU classification. The overall accuracy of the classification was 97.31 and 94.62, and kappa was 0.95 and 0.90 for RF and SVM, respectively. Multi-temporal normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) analysis provided insights into vegetation health and coverage, offering a clear picture of greenery changes. Monthly changes in vegetation cover readings were quantified using NDVI values derived from MODIS data, identifying suitable regions for elephants to forage frequently. Furthermore, Kernel density estimation identified high-density areas for reported incidents of human and elephant deaths. This process involved assigning weight to conflict incidents within a 5 km radius, considering the proximity to the forest, and evaluating greenery changes using NDVI values, revealing varying levels of HEC risk, ranging from very high to low. The LCLU map, created using the RF classifier, indicates that all potential HEC hotspots for very high and high HEC risks are closely aligned with forest boundaries. The findings support HEC mitigation strategies through community awareness, HEC hotspots mapping and restoration practices to ensure a sustainable human-elephant coexistence. This method will help policymakers in wildlife conservation to identify high risk HEC zones to support HEC mitigation. In conclusion, this study highlights the potential of integrating remote sensing and GIS techniques in demarcating HEC hotspots in Sri Lanka to support conflict mitigation efforts.