Abstract
Tea is a cash crop that improves the quality of life for people in the Tanuyen District of Laichau Province, Vietnam. Tea yield, however, has stagnated in recent years, due to changes in temperature, precipitation, the age of the tea bushes, and diseases. Developing an approach for monitoring tea bushes by remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) might be a way to alleviate this problem. Using multi-temporal remote sensing data, the paper details an investigation of the changes in tea health and yield forecasting through the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). In this study, we used NDVI as a support tool to demonstrate the temporal and spatial changes in NDVI through the extract tea NDVI value and calculate the mean NDVI value. The results of the study showed that the minimum NDVI value was 0.42 during January 2013 and February 2015 and 2016. The maximum NDVI value was in August 2015 and June 2017. We indicate that the linear relationship between NDVI value and mean temperature was strong with R 2 = 0.79 Our results confirm that the combination of meteorological data and NDVI data can achieve a high performance of yield prediction. Three models to predict tea yield were conducted: support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and the traditional linear regression model (TLRM). For period 2009 to 2018, the prediction tea yield by the RF model was the best with a R 2 = 0.73 , by SVM it was 0.66, and 0.57 with the TLRM. Three evaluation indicators were used to consider accuracy: the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and percentage error of tea yield (PETY). The highest accuracy for the three models was in 2015 with a R 2 ≥ 0.87, RMSE < 50 kg/ha, and PETY less 3% error. In the other years, the prediction accuracy was higher in the SVM and RF models. Meanwhile, the RF algorithm was better than PETY (≤10%) and the root mean square error for this algorithm was significantly less (≤80 kg/ha). RMSE and PETY showed relatively good values in the TLRM model with a RMSE from 80 to 100 kg/ha and a PETY from 8 to 15%.
Highlights
The northwest Vietnam region featured mountainous terrain categories with the temperature, water, and light being suitable conditions for tea production
To improve the prediction accuracy of tea yield, our work proposes a prediction model for yield forecast based on support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) to replace the traditional linear regression model (TLRM)
Will the temperature have an impact on the tea normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) value or not? We demonstrate this by establishing the relationship between temperature and tea NDVI
Summary
The northwest Vietnam region featured mountainous terrain categories with the temperature, water, and light being suitable conditions for tea production. Laichau is one of the main tea growing areas in the northwest region of Vietnam where Tanuyen District is the key tea producing area. It has 2854 ha of tea plants, accounting for two-thirds of the tea-producing area of the whole province. It can be said that tea is a crop that brings economic benefits and creates jobs for people in Vietnam, and accurate estimations of tea yield are becoming increasingly important. Tea yield has stagnated in recent years, due to changes in temperature, precipitation, the age of the tea bushes, and diseases [1]. Remote sensing and GIS were combined to monitor tea bush status and forecast tea yield based these factors
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
