Abstract

Flooding often occurs in the lowlands, while the area is usually a rice production centres which affects the rice crop. Rice fields is generally located on fluvial plains and usually located in coastal areas, with relatively lower altitudes than roads or settlements. Physically wetland is an area flooding hazard and wetlands tend to longer floods than surrounding areas. Flood-hazard areas are formed due to sedimentation and usually at the confluence of river. This area is a fertile area for agriculture, has shallow ground water which is well suited for residential and urban areas. Karawang regency is one of the largest producers of rice commodities in West Java, therefore the Karawang regency government faces a challenge in maintaining the level of rice production due to global climate change that worsen the threat of flood hazard, in addition to land use change and increasing population. Based on the results of the spatial analysis from period of 2000 to 2006 the wetland area have been converted up to 7,493 ha. For the period of 2006 to 2015 wetland area have been converted up to 14,416 ha. Utilization of Geographic Information System with a model of Cellular Automata - Marcov Chain is an appropriate method for studying the phenomenon of expansion of build ups land in coastal region. The primary data used in the research is a land cover map of 2000, 2006 and 2015, which were the results of the multispectral classification of Landsat. The prediction of land cover change for the next fifteen years shows a continuous increase in built up area. The expansion of built up area and the possibility of widespread flood hazard areas, have inverse relationship with the decreasing of agricultural land area.

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