Ice Phenology in Eurasian Lakes over Spatial Location and Altitude

Abstract

Eurasian freezing lakes cover an almost 180° wide longitude sector between the latitudes 30° and 75° N, and their altitudes range from below the sea surface level up to 5 km elevation. Ice phenology varies widely in this region. However, these variations and their influence factors have been little studied. Analytic models are applied here to examine these variations supported by historical ice and weather data. These models are forced by a linear air–lake heat exchange formula based on local empirical fits. The weather brings latitude–longitude–altitude patterns to the large-scale lake ice phenology. Freezing and breakup dates are forced by the local air temperature and solar radiation, and their rates of change are also important. In addition, freezing depends on lake depth and breakup depends on accumulated ice thickness. Lake depth provides a lag and radiation balance provides a shift with respect to the air temperature in cooling of the lake, and breakup is dictated by spring warming conditions and ice thickness. Due to solar radiation forcing, the common degree-day approach is biased for modelling ice phenology, especially in low latitudes. Analytic models provide a first-order tool for climate sensitivity of ice seasons. The freezing date and breakup date both change by around five days per one-degree shift in air temperature away from the climatological ice margin; however, at this margin, the sensitivity is higher.