Abstract
ABSTRACT This study is composed of assessment of air temperature, rainfall, available water reservoir, and runoff potential. The analysis of air temperature and rainfall (1996–2010) in the Xianning watershed, which was composed of Tongcheng, Chibi, and Jiayu small catchment areas was carried out and various extreme events (for example, floods in Yangtze river) were recorded. The climatic conditions of the watershed were evaluated over a period and the impacts of climatic change were investigated. Then, a forecasting model was developed for the future climatic changes (up to 2025) and the hydrological response due to these climatic changes in the study area was discussed. The results showed increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall, and that the changing climate mostly drifted during the 1990 s and onwards. It is foreseen that the natural extreme events have shifted with the seasons and there is an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme. The future planning for water resources ought to consider the probable environmental change scenario, which entails an indulgence of both sensitivities to change and recent changeability over time.
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